Lelys Bravo is a Statistics Professor at the Department of Statistics at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. Before that she was a member of the Science Steering Committee of the Biospherical Aspects of the Hydrological Cycle project from the International Geosphere-Biosphere Program (IGBP) and Lead author of the Millenium Ecosystem Assessment report. Her research interests include spatial and temporal analysis of environmental data, including the development of risk assessment methods to evaluate the impacts of natural hazards under potential climate change.
Julia Stewart Lowndes (@juliesquid) is a marine ecologist, data scientist, and Senior Fellow at the National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis (NCEAS) at the University of California Santa Barbara. She champions kinder, better science in less time through open data science and teamwork. As a marine data scientist, Mozilla Fellow, and Senior Fellow at NCEAS, she has 7+ years designing and leading programs to empower science teams with skillsets and mindsets for reproducible research, empowering researchers with existing open tools and communities. She has been building communities of practice in this space since 2013 with the Ocean Health Index.
Episode Description
The health of the world's oceans is a growing concern but measuring ocean health is a complicated undertaking. Some people studying the issue focus on pollution, while others look at the health of corals or marine mammals. One project attempts to take a comprehensive picture of the health of oceans in order to provide information about Oceanic vital signs to stakeholders. The Ocean Health Index is the focus of this episode of Stats+Stories with guests Lelys Bravo and Julia Stewart Lowndes.
+Full Transcript
Pennington
The health of the world's oceans is a growing concern. But measuring ocean health is a complicated undertaking. Some people studying the issue focus on pollution while others look at the health of corals or marine mammals. One project attempts to take a comprehensive picture of the health of Oceans in order to provide information about oceanic vital science to stakeholders. The Ocean Health Index is the focus of this episode of Stats and Stories where we explore the statistics behind the stories and the stories behind the statistics. I'm Rosemary Pennington. Stats and Stories is a production of Miami University's Department of Statistics and media journalism and film, as well as the American Statistical Association. Joining me is regular panelist John Bailer, Chair of Miami statistics department. Our guests today are Dr. Lelys Bravo and Dr. Julia Stewart-Lowndes. Bravo is a statistics professor in the Department of Statistics at University of Illinois at Urbana Champaign. Before that she was a member of the science steering committee of the biosphere ethical aspects of the hydrological cycle project from the International geosphere biosphere program and lead author of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Report. Her research interests include spatial and temporal analysis of environmental data, including the development of risk assessment methods to evaluate the impacts of natural hazards under potential climate change. Loans is a marine ecologist, data scientist and senior fellow at the National Center for ecological analysis and synthesis at the University of California Santa Barbara. She champions kinder, better science and less time through open data science and teamwork. As a Marine, data scientist Mozilla fellow and senior fellow at NC EAS, she has spent more than seven years designing and leading programs to empower science teams with skill sets and mindsets for reproducible research, empowering researchers with existing open tools and communities. She has been building communities of practice in this space since 2013. With the Ocean Health Index, thank you both so much for joining us today.
Julia Stewart-Lowndes
Thanks so much.
Lelys Bravo
Thank you for the invitation.
Pennington
I, you know, I think the first big question for not just John and i but our listeners is what is the Ocean Health Index?
Julia Stewart-Lowndes
That's a good question. So the Ocean Health Index is a scientific framework to help measure what people value about the oceans. And so that can be things like, like fishing, but beyond just the food, and then the tons of fish that we get from the oceans? How does fishing play into the jobs that people have and to the cultural identity that people have? And then how does something like fishing play alongside other things like tourism and habitats?
Bailer
You know what the 2013 number actually resonates with us? That was our very first episode, podcast. So you know, this is, I don't know, maybe the stars are aligned to bring Ojai and Stats and Stories together today. You don't think that? Did you? Come on Rosemary? So one thing I'm curious about is what was the inspiration for doing this? I mean, you told us what this is. And I think it's really a neat idea for this framework for trying to assess and evaluate the value of the oceans. But what is the what, what pushes this into existence?
Julia Stewart-Lowndes
Yeah, so this started off as a collaboration before 2010. I think 2009. It started as a collaboration between some folks at Conservation International and at MCs, UC Santa Barbara. And the idea was really to have a way to use the best available data and best available science to easily communicate how well oceans were doing so that management could make proactive decisions based on that information. So it's really a partnership between science and managers, and thinking about where we can best collaborate and communicate around healthy oceans.
Bailer
You know, so the net the follow up is obviously so you know, the gestation period sounds like it's at least four years for given. Yes, given that conception. So what can you talk a little bit about, you know, this movement from conception to implementation. And just before we started the conversation today, you had mentioned that lately some of your, your perspective on using kind of the open source tools or using some reproducible research ideas were really important. So could you talk a little bit about those tools and then also kind of this movement from conception to implementation?
Julia Stewart-Lowndes
So yeah, what this looked like was, first of all, starting off at the conceptual level of what are these kinds of benefits that The oceans provide people and really trying to catalog the catalog or categorize them. So the idea that there's food provision, that there's a sense of place, that there's tourism and recreation that the ocean provides. So it's really starting at this kind of high level conceptual framework, not limited to data at hand, or scientific models at hand. So really starting at that high level. And then the idea was that from that high level, then you could apply that conceptual framework to different spatial scales. So at the global level, thinking about what data sets exists from the World Bank or from the UN, so that this could be something used for policy at the UN level, where you're comparing, you know, how oceans are doing coast to coast, for nations. But then also, we said, the idea was to have this conceptual framework that would, that would be able to be used it at like a global level, or at a very small spatial scale for and tailored so that we made sure that you were using data and looking towards setting goals and reference points for what was important at that spatial scale. And that's something that legales can, can speak to as well, because she's worked at these three different spatial scales now using the same framework and incorporating data.
Lelys Bravo
Yeah, well, yeah, that's where, you know, like, my experience comes into place, looking at the global perspective, our the Global Health Index was designed, and then taking that to local problem, and to understand how local managers could benefit for from understanding all the different aspects of their, you know, ocean in front of in front of them, you know, provision in so many resources, you know, like food tourism, sense of place, conservation, and many others. So then, at the local scale, it's a challenge that is maybe having a different lens, that when you look at that at a global scale, because at a local scale, you have different resources and communities that not necessarily have a data oriented platform, and nor different sources of data organized in such a way that they can make some purpose, or they can make some conclusions, and they can make some or design some policies. So then that's where, you know, the challenge comes into place where you know, you have to sit with the local stakeholders and just explain to them, we have these different goals, each goal has a different philosophy, and each goal is going to need different sets of data sources. And where are these data sources? What are your institutions? What, what kind of data? Do they have a can we use this local data, can we put it into a format that can be used to fit the Global Health Index into our local problem, and then things like, for example, different pressures, and resilience aspects that you need to understand locally, how the community see the different pressures, whether they have some, you know, pressures that are more important than others, how you can use order that and just take into account their perspective as well. And then, of course, we as data scientists in the other side, try to help to organize this information in a way that it makes sense, and it's usable for model calculations. And finally, to get the global index or the local index as a number that makes sense locally.
Pennington
I was gonna actually ask about this conceptualization of the things you're measuring. So I think a sense of place is one of them correct? And, and it's something that I do digital media research and sort of this idea of place, and space plays a lot into the work that I do there. And I'm just kind of wondering if you could talk through how you conceptualize something like a sense of place in relation to sort of ocean and ocean health in particular, because I think when we hear ocean health, it's, you know, the waves of plastic we see are the dying mammals. And I think that that idea of place being pivotal to that understanding is really intriguing.
Julia Stewart-Lowndes
Yeah, no, it is. And it's something the Ocean Health Index builds off of previous work looking at cumulative human impacts. And so looking at the plastic and the overfishing and climate change and other human pressures, and really, the Ocean Health Index is trying to capture the benefits that the ocean provides, while also keeping those pressures and human impacts there. But yeah, the idea of a sense of place is a really important one. And not one that, you know, I, as a marine ecologist, like to have a lot of experience with . There's a lot of social science in this kind of idea. But it's something we all feel like the connection to people living at the coast or working at the coast or visiting the coasts. And so some examples of data that we've used at different scales to try to capture are, whether there's local species that are protected, or whether local species show up on stamps, or are involved in public artwork in different places. So they're, you know, they're trying to capture that type of eye, that kind of connection to oceans, and why people care and value the oceans. And that's kind of where this is like, it gets really fun and creative and challenging, right? Like what data might exist that could represent this feeling, and how would you model it in a way that would make sense to capture really, that philosophy of the goal?
Bailer
Yeah, when I was looking at this, this, this matrix of possible outcomes here of, you know, this, you have these different goals, these 10 different goals and dimensions. And I really like that you have the status pressures, and resilience is kind of a component of each of those. So you have this at this high level, you're, you're you're framing this out, and then you're kind of drilling into to think about this more, I thought it might be helpful for for people that are listening, and for us to, to maybe pick, just pick one of these dimensions that you like and talk give an example of what a status measure might look like for that that goal. And what is the pressure in that context? Then what is resilience? Maybe considered? So not to put you on the spot, but just to maybe help kind of just expand a little bit? And, you know, we'll even let you pick your favorite dimension?
Lelys Bravo
Yeah, well, for example, tourism is one that is interesting, and is one of the ones that we have had to adapt locally, more than the others, because locally, tourism is, is is having a very different dynamics, depending on the location you are, some things are regulated, all these things are not regulated. So you normally want to have different proxies, if you don't have enough data, for example, if you don't have enough data on, on the number of visitors that you have to a different place, then you may you might use proxy data on you know, like, for example, what how much the tourism industry generates or is supporting local economy. So then that proxy information can be used as a measure of how the tourism activity is his measure. But then if you have data on the local number of visitors, like, for example, in Ecuador, Galapagos Island is a very good monitor. So you might use that data directly. So you don't need to really have proxies, if you have enough information locally. So that is the challenge to see whether locally, you have better information that is going to be making the job of measuring really the use of the ocean as a resource for tourism. So the reason was, it has always been very challenging every challenging goal. And then how is the projection for the future? And then, of course, luckily, status based on recent history is okay, if you have historical data on, for example, number of visitors or employment, but then how is it going to move into the future? Well, that is a little bit tricky. And then pressures and resilience there are, you know, pressures means, for example, what about climate change impact on a particular location? And how is that going to be affecting the vision of the tourists coming into that place? So then on resilience, of course, if you don't have enough regulatory measures, contribute to keep tourism to a sustainable level, then, of course, it's going to get to a point that it's going to be beyond what is sustainable, and is going to be having a negative impact on the remaining components of the of the index. So you know, it's an interesting goal and very challenging.
Pennington
You're listening to Stats and Stories. And today we're talking about the Ocean Health Index with Lelys Bravo and Julia Stewart-Lowndes. I wonder if you could talk about sort of how people should understand the index when they come to it. So it took me a little while of digging around on the website to kind of figure out like, what is this telling me? What it is, is helping me understand. So could you walk through, if one of our listeners went to the Ocean Health Index website? Like, what are they going to find there? And how can you know how they can use it to understand, again, ocean health?
Julia Stewart-Lowndes
Yes, so the way we communicated on the Ocean Health Index is it comes to a very high level, but then you can kind of peel back like an onion and uncover more and more details. But, um, there is a single score for the entire assessment area. So for our global assessments, there's like a single score for ocean health in the world, which I believe is around 73 out of 100. And the way we communicate that is, that number comes from a weighted average of 10 of these goals that we represent like petals around the center of the flower. And so each of those goals has its own score from zero to 100, that is a weighted average together. And then you can also dig deeper into each of those petals and see the models that were created in the data behind how that score scale came to be. So summarizing it at a single spatial scale, like global and then digging deeper into each goal is one way that we summarize, you could also look at a single place like Ecuador and then dig deeper into the petals of that single place. So we so there is a lot of there's a lot of detail that we we try to present in a way that you can dig deeper and uncover this the science behind it, the data behind it, and then also the code behind it so that you can take this and do this your yourself in a different spatial scale.
Bailer
You know, when I first saw this scale I, I was thinking of a couple of couple of ideas came to mind for me, one is the various places rated almanacs, you know, that you, where you see these kind of ratings of cities or ratings of locations, and they typically have multiple dimensions, and they may be weighted equally, or they may, you may have some differential weights, or, you know, in the in risk assessment world, these cumulative risk assessments when you're thinking about lots of potential impacts, or lots of potential outcomes, as part of what you're evaluating a question that I had when thinking about these indices, is, would be do all audiences think about weighing the dimensions in the same way? You know, because I could well imagine that some that, that someone who lives and lives right next to the ocean, might have a different sense of what they would think of as important among the scale here, you know, versus someone who is thinking about, I don't know, kind of the economic yield that they hope to, to obtain from this, this from the ocean as resource. So I'm just curious about this idea of, of waiting and and using these dimensions in some ways, given that you probably have very disparate communities of interest and concern for when that is evaluating this?
Julia Stewart-Lowndes
Yes, that's a big question. There's, there's a lot of value judgments that are built into the Ocean Health Index on how you weigh those goals, and also how each goal actually has its own reference point to saying what is what is 100 out of 100 for this goal. And those are all those are all about, you know, those are all human decisions that are based on the best available data when available, but also expert opinion. And that does vary. So what we try to do is just make that process transparent, so that you can say, this is what we mean by 100 out of 100. Because a lot of those decisions are often made in people's heads or behind closed doors. So just trying to put that out there in a transparent way. And one at one, one assessment up in Canada actually did do a national survey of trying to understand how these goals would be weighted in different geographic regions by age and by kind of perspective on natural resources. And, and it does vary. And on how folks we weigh those goals. And so then it's, you know, I think it's an additional communication and community engagement and trust building opportunity to kind of take that information and make policy from there.
Pennington
I was going to actually ask about this policy piece because I stole the language about vital signs of the ocean from the Ocean Health Index website, because I love that turn of phrase, but I do wonder if you know you've been doing this since working on this since 2013. If you have instances where the work that has been collected as part of These assessments has actually turned into tangible policy or some kind of real change to address maybe some issues that were highlighted in an assessment.
Lelys Bravo
Yeah, I just follow that idea. The, for example, the assessment with it for the wire cue goals, that was an example of how this index could be used for policymaking. And for future predictions on what kind of actions the community and the local governments to take, but importantly, is that these have to be also repeated in time, in order to have a better value. Because you know, if you do the assessment, once for a particular year, you get the results, and then you don't follow up, it is going to vanish and dilute in time. And I think, unfortunately, you need to have some sustain, and funding or support or organization locally that continues and look at the value of that is, it's important, for example, for in the two assessments we've done in Ecuador, the fisheries part and mid culture component is being very important to, you know, keep or just give a warning, and somehow give a sense of where they are as people that is using these resources to feed the population to have revenues in terms of imports and exports. Well, how much humming or how well are we doing? Are we really over exploiting our oceans or are not. And then I think that was something that I kept, or just again, gave a big piece of thinking to the local governments and the local institutions are in charge of the fisheries management in the country. Yeah. But as I said, you have these one time assessment of it is not continuing to understand how it varies from year to year, then to my mind is going to get the muted, and it's going to vanish, unfortunately, but the good thing about the people in Santa Barbara, is that you the global assessment is being done annually. So maybe you want to add more about that, Julia?
Julia Stewart-Lowndes
Yeah, no. Um, yeah, I do think that the importance of the repeated assessment is really critical. So that you can refine and use that first one as maybe like a version 1.0 and get more feedback and identify data gaps and, and really go from there. And so the global assessment, you know, that this is actually our 10 year anniversary of global scores, which is, which is exciting, we'll release that, yeah, later this year. And that's it's been considered for the United Nations sustainable development goals for life underwater. And, you know, that's still a sort of work in progress there. But, really having that kind of iteration and buy in over time is very important. One other example I can say, too, is, there's an assessment in the Baltic Sea, the Baltic Health Index, and they really use their first assessment, kind of as a version 1.0 in order to really identify data gaps and identify gaps in collaborators that should be involved. And so but they still found value in saying, but this is an endpoint for the first one, we're going to be able to communicate around this and see what we've learned and then do the second one and start looking at these through time in order to inform policy.
Bailer
So as I'm thinking about this, I'm just imagining this tremendous effort that's reflected here. I mean, when I say when I would, you're talking about 10 goals dimensions crossed with three different state status, pressures, resilience, and thinking about the data that needs to be collected. I'm just curious how many people are involved and and in doing so, you know, it's it seems like, you know, this this gigantic multi ring circus of that has to be coordinated that you bring together so I'm just curious just how large a task is this and how many are involved in coordinating and how many involved in collecting and, and, and gathering these data? Yeah,
Julia Stewart-Lowndes
Um, so this is a really cool story about open science and collaboration really, when we first started, you know, around 2010 or 22,009 It was a big team of 30 to kind of design the, the conceptual framework to identify open Lee available data sources, which is a foundation of the Ocean Health Index. These are publicly available data. And then to, you know, to design that framework, and then do the analysis, write the code and whatnot. And here, it's now in 2021, we have one full time person able to iterate each year. And that's partly because the design of the conceptually is stable now, but it's also because we've designed all these you know, the way we've written code, the way we automate a lot of processes so that we can look for new years of data from the existing datasets, we're already modeling, accommodate any changes in incorporate new science where, where possible, but then reproduce the scores not only for the current year, but then also back calculating all past years so that the models that any fine tuning we did to the models this year are also able to be accurately compared backwards to time. Yeah, so it's the power of team science, open data science, and a lot of community support.
Bailer
That's very cool.
Pennington
Yeah. Thank you both so much for being here today. That's all the time we have for this episode. And I'm so sad cuz I think John and I have a million questions that we did not get to, but it's been a pleasure talking to you both. Thanks so much.
Lelys Bravo
Thank you,
Julia Stewart-Lowndes
you as well.
Lelys Bravo
Thank you so much.
Pennington
Stats and Stories is a partnership between Miami University’s Departments of Statistics, and Media, Journalism and Film, and the American Statistical Association. You can follow us on Twitter, Apple podcasts, or other places you can find podcasts. If you’d like to share your thoughts on the program send your email to statsandstories@miamioh.edu or check us out at statsandstories.net, and be sure to listen for future editions of Stats and Stories, where we discuss the statistics behind the stories and the stories behind the statistics.