Harford is an economist, journalist and broadcaster. He is author of "How To Make the World Add Up", "Messy", and the million-selling "The Undercover Economist". Tim is a senior columnist at the Financial Times, and the presenter of Radio 4's "More or Less", the iTunes-topping series "Fifty Things That Made the Modern Economy", and the new podcast "Cautionary Tales". Tim has spoken at TED, PopTech and the Sydney Opera House. He is an associate member of Nuffield College, Oxford and an honorary fellow of the Royal Statistical Society. Tim was made an OBE for services to improving economic understanding in the New Year honors of 2019. His newest book “The Data Detective” was released in the U.S. and Canada earlier this month.
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John Bailer: Everyone has a podcast nowadays. Whether it's about sports, politics or features some of the most fascinating discussions on the current state of statistical communication in the world. No matter the topic, it seems like someone, somewhere is talking into a microphone about it. Getting someone to act on your podcast however - that's a lot more rare. Tim Harford is our guest and the host of the new podcast “Cautionary Tales.” as well as the author of the books “Messy,” “The Undercover Economist,” and “The Data Detective: Ten Easy Rules to Make Sense of Statistics” – released this month in the United States and Canada. Tim is a senior columnist at the Financial Times, and the presenter of Radio 4’s “More or Less,” the series “Fifty Things That Made the Modern Economy,” and the podcast He’s an associate member of Nuffield College, Oxford and an honorary fellow of the Royal Statistical Society. Tim was made an O-B-E for services toward improving economic understanding in the New Year honors of 20-19. Tim it's great to have you here. We're excited to talk to you about, you know, your new podcast I kind of accident the world and Cautionary Tales, and particularly about a hero of mine and of many and that's Florence Nightingale, and you wrote about her recently in the pandemic so welcome Tim.
Harford: Thank you very much, Nightingale, of course, will be no stranger to fans of Stats and Stories oh you had a wonderful episode with Alison Headley with a Victorian data visualization expert. Not so long ago. But what I have. What I am able to contribute to the ongoing love affair of statisticians with Florence Nightingale is that in Cautionary Tales I can reveal that we have managed to persuade Helena Bonham Carter. A list as a Lister to play. Florence Nightingale herself. I've written a cautionary tale about Florence Nightingale about her experiments with data visualization and Cautionary Tales, they're true stories and then we have real actors who come and play these parts. And when my producer said we're going to ask Helena Bonham Carter to do it I thought well yeah good luck with that. Just a little podcast. But I was absolutely delighted that she agreed to do it. I mean she's actually not, not the only amazing actor that we have. But I realized there, there may be a reason why she was interested because I realized that she is in fact distantly related to Florence Nightingale Florence Nightingale was part of the Bonham Carter family, and she's campaigned to raise awareness of nightingales work and so maybe, maybe that was what hooked me in I wasn't aware of the connection but I've heard snippets of her performance, and it is amazing, absolutely amazing.
Bailer: You raised the bar for our producer, by the way. He's probably quaking in his boots now about what the expectations are for this show.
Harford: Well you know it's always good if you're trying to raise awareness of an issue if you can just have an incredibly famous person related to the person that's even better. It does no harm at all. But, I mean, as I think Stats and Stories this will know Nightingale was a remarkable figure in the history of statistics, and a lot of different stories told about her they're not they're not all true. But the one that I really wanted to explore was at her experiments with data visualization specifically I think a lot of people will know she, she went out to serve as a nurse to lead a contingent of nurses in the Crimean War in the mid 19th century to a very difficult experience there, she became a sort of patron saint of Britain she was the most famous woman in the British Empire except for Queen Victoria herself and she was. As you may know, the first female Fellow of the Royal statistical society. But what particularly interested me was, she was going toe to toe with the British Medical and military establishment, and she was very explicit, she said well when I am outraged or when I'm enraged I revenge myself with a new diagram that quote. That is amazing. And she talked about, she was going to frame her diagrams, have them framed and hung on the wall at the Ministry of war and the, the barracks and the various areas where the people she wanted to influence would see them and she was going to send copies to Queen Victoria and Prince Albert he was going to send copies to ambassadors, she was going to send copies to the press, and to the Houses of Parliament. It was very very conscious of the power of a good chart to communicate a story, and that is what I'm trying to explore in this particular Cautionary Tales and also the downside, so what are the risks when that's when you, that's what you're trying to do when you start trying to persuade people. What are you what are you willing to cut corners for? Are you willing to skew the dice in your favor. Did she do that or did she not and these are the things I'm trying to explore.
Rosemary Pennington: What is your approach to storytelling and Cautionary Tales, so for the, for someone who has not listened, what are they, what are they going to, if they're not listening to Florence Nightingale, what are they normally going to encounter, they listen to this.
Harford: Well one of the other Cautionary Tales is about Martin Luther King and his most famous speech contrasted with a gentleman called Gerald rapper, very famous in the UK, who was a jewelry entrepreneur who gave a speech which blew up his empire and cost hundreds of millions of dollars and asking, What did Martin Luther King do successfully that Gerald Ratner failed to do or vice versa and, and there's a twist. There's a twist in the story. There's another one called the Dunning Kruger hijack, which is a hijacking of an aeroplane by the stupidest terrorists imaginable. And, like, why are some people so very far outside their sphere of competence.
Richard Campbell: And each I think he's looking right at me
Harford: It's just a guilty conscience Richard. In each case, what I'm doing is I'm trying to tell these true stories. I go to the historical record or the speeches, the biographies, the histories. I'm writing scripts for actors. Most of the scripts are, again, based on the things that we know they said but sometimes you know I would be based on a close paraphrase or something or media report. But the idea is to tell this true story. And it's always a story of something going wrong. Sometimes it's very funny sometimes it's absolutely tragic. Every now and then there's a happy ending. Because you've got to keep people guessing. But in each case, I wanted to bring social science to the story. So I want to explain to people about the Dunning Kruger effect, for example, or about the neuroscientific research into improvisation that tells us about Martin Luther King speeches, or in the case of Florence Nightingale What do we know about data visualization, and when it persuades or fails to persuade.
Bailer: Well, I'm afraid that's all the time we have for this episode of Stetson short stories, Tim thank you so much for being here.
Harford: My pleasure. Thank you.
Bailer: Stats and Stories is a partnership between Miami University’s Departments of Statistics, and Media, Journalism and Film, and the American Statistical Association. You can follow us on Twitter, Apple podcasts, or other places you can find podcasts. If you’d like to share your thoughts on the program send your email to statsandstories@miamioh.edu or check us out at statsandstories.net, and be sure to listen for future editions of Stats and Stories, where we discuss the statistics behind the stories and the stories behind the statistics.